Truth in Science Rules, Memes Drool

In science, precision and integrity are paramount. Natural phenomena—especially those as consequential as the North Pacific’s “Warm Blob”—must be described truthfully and scientifically, not filtered through the lens of political convenience or ideological spin. Unfortunately, a growing trend in ocean science communication has allowed the Warm Blob to be mischaracterized as a climate change artifact, rather than what it truly is: a harbinger of ocean biological and ecological collapse, a collapse for which we are very likely able to reverse.

This distortion is not benign. When “experts” promote politically favored narratives over evidence-based analysis, they risk misleading the public and policymakers alike. In the case of the Warm Blob, the reality is clear and measurable: the ocean’s biological cooling system failed, not because of greenhouse gases, but because the engine that drives ocean productivity—the plankton pasture—was starved.

Origin of the Term and the Meme

The term “The Blob” was first coined in 2014 by Dr. Nicholas Bond, a climatologist with the University of Washington and Washington State’s official climatologist, to describe a persistent patch of anomalously warm water observed in the North Pacific beginning in 2013. Bond and other NOAA-affiliated researchers attributed the phenomenon to a large, stagnant high-pressure system that prevented normal ocean-atmosphere mixing, leading to surface heat accumulation.

This high-pressure hypothesis was quickly adopted and amplified in NOAA reports and the media, becoming a convenient climate-linked meme. The Warm Blob was popularly portrayed as an atmospheric consequence of global warming rather than the result of ecological breakdown. This explanation, however, had limited predictive power and little correlation with long-term environmental changes underway across the Pacific ecosystem.

Crucially, this narrative suppressed further inquiry into a far more scientifically robust explanation: the collapse of ocean pastures due to the disappearance of iron-rich aeolian dust and the resulting breakdown of the diel biological cooling pump. While the atmosphere indeed played a role, it was the dramatic biological decline beneath the surface that best explains both the timing and persistence of the Blob.

A Vanishing Lifeline: The Dust Decline

For the past 75 years, one of the most vital lifelines nourishing the North Pacific Ocean has been disappearing silently: dust. Specifically, aeolian dust blown from the deserts of China and Mongolia, rich in iron and trace minerals, has diminished by over 80% since 1950. This vast and largely overlooked loss of airborne nutrients is not just a curious atmospheric phenomenon—it is the root cause of catastrophic declines in ocean productivity. It offers not only the most compelling explanation for the infamous “Warm Blob” but by far the best-correlated and most quantitatively supported scientific basis for its emergence.

The Collapse of Ocean Pastures

This dust is the primary source of essential micronutrients that fertilize ocean pastures, enabling the growth of phytoplankton—the base of the marine food web. Without these nourishing mineral deliveries, phytoplankton populations have plummeted by ~47% in the Gulf of Alaska and greater North Pacific over the past 70 years. This foundational collapse propagates up the food chain through a well-established ecological principle: the 10% rule of trophic efficiency.

Understanding the Trophic Collapse: A Simple Math Model

Let us assume a baseline of 100 units of phytoplankton biomass in the 1950s. By 2025, this has dropped by 47%, to 53 units.

• Zooplankton (Level 2): With only 10% of the phytoplankton energy transferred, the original 10 units available to zooplankton is reduced to 5.3 units—a 47% drop. But zooplankton require a threshold energy to sustain reproduction and migration.
• Metabolic Stress Factor: Due to higher water temperatures and lower food quality, survival efficiency drops. A compounding effect means zooplankton abundance may decline not just linearly, but by 70% to 90%.
• Observed Validation: Empirical data from 2013–2016 confirms this prediction. Copepod populations in the Gulf of Alaska fell dramatically—up to 90% in some monitored zones.

The Disruption of Ocean Cooling

These zooplankton form the core of the diel biological pump. Their vertical migrations, responsible for the downward movement of heat and carbon, diminish in proportion to their population.

Zooplankton and larger nekton undertake diel vertical migrations, rising to the surface at night to feed and diving hundreds of meters by day to escape predators. This synchronized vertical movement—the largest daily migration of biomass on Earth—is a powerful biological pump that transports heat, carbon, and nutrients vertically through the water column. It helps cool the surface and sustain deep ocean life.

The Warm Blob Responsibly Defined

During the Blob years (2013–2016), observational data confirmed the devastating decline of copepods and other key zooplankton species. Their collapse disrupted this natural oceanic circulation system. With fewer zooplankton migrating, less heat was drawn down into the depths, and the upper ocean layers became more thermally stagnant. The ocean, starved of its biological breath, began to run a fever.

The pervasive and misleading narrative put forth by many ocean scientists, managers, and influencers—that the Warm Blob is simply a byproduct of climate change—must be resoundingly refuted. It is not atmospheric warming, but the collapse of ocean pasture ecosystems that has triggered this marine heatwave and the broader cascade of ecological failures. Clinging to the climate change explanation distracts from the urgent biological truth and undermines action to address the root cause.

Restoring the Ocean’s Cooling Engine

The North Pacific can be restored to its historic greatness of health and abundance. But doing so demands we recognize the real problem: the starvation of the sea, the silencing of its great vertical migrations, and the loss of its cooling breath. We must stop misdiagnosing the disease and start delivering the cure—beginning with the return of life-giving dust.

The oceans are not passive victims of climate change. They are active regulators of climate. When ocean pastures are nourished and vibrant, they cool the planet, sequester carbon, and feed the world. When they are starved, as they are now, everything from plankton to salmon to global weather systems begins to unravel.

If we wish to restore balance, we must start at the base. We must restore the delivery of vital micronutrients—particularly iron—through safe and proven ocean pasture restoration techniques. This will revive the phytoplankton, reawaken the zooplankton migrations, and reignite the ocean’s ability to breathe and regulate the planet’s climate from within.

Conclusion: Healing the Ocean Starts with Dust

The Warm Blob was not merely a symptom of atmospheric warming. It was an oceanic fever brought on by starvation. And just as fevers signal deeper ailments, the cure begins not with a fan but with restoring the health of the system itself—starting with the dust that once gave the sea its strength.

References

• Boyd, P. W., et al. (2007). Mesoscale iron enrichment experiments 1993–2005: Synthesis and future directions. Science, 315(5812), 612–617.
• Martin, J. H., & Fitzwater, S. E. (1988). Iron deficiency limits phytoplankton growth in the northeast Pacific subarctic. Nature, 331, 341–343.
• Peterson, W. T. (2009). Copepod species composition as an indicator of ocean and climate conditions. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 396, 289–302.
• Di Lorenzo, E., & Mantua, N. (2016). Multi-year persistence of the 2014/15 North Pacific marine heatwave. Nature Climate Change, 6, 1042–1047.
• Behrenfeld, M. J., et al. (2006). Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity. Nature, 444, 752–755.