Global Warming Is Back, good-bye ‘climate change.’
Early reports on final text of the Paris COP21 “agreement” resoundingly reinstate the focus as exclusively “global warming.”
(note this post will be updated regularly with some days of careful reading of the 31 page accord)
The Paris COP21 Accord is done with a target to restrain global warming to 2° C. The signing ceremony is set for the UN in April of 2016 though the signing remains open for a period of 1 year. The entirely voluntary accord in short expects the world to reduce CO2 emissions by ~30% by the year 2050, sooner the better. The International Energy Agency says getting on with this will cost $16.5 trillion between now and 2030 alone! John Kerry has stated that the US Government expects that cost to exceed $50 trillion!
The focus on the ‘global warming’ aspect of CO2 is of course this authors major issue with the Paris Accord as CO2 acts far more immediately and potently to radically shift ocean ecosystems through both direct and indirect chemical and ecological pathways. Spin mastering the problem of our CO2 emissions as ‘global warming’ is a prescription for endless debate! It’s akin to treating a patient with a fever by turning on an air conditioner to lower their temperature and counseling them to stop taking more of the poison (tomorrows CO2) they clearly were exposed to while refusing to administer the vital antidote to save them from the poison already ingested (yesterdays CO2).
UPDATE 14 Dec: At last a true hallelujah, the full text is out and to my delight the oceans have made it into the final text. The Paris Accord now states clearly mine and Mother Natures solutions to our CO2 global crisis must be restoring plant life, the trees and seas!
Let the whining and wangling begin
The specified targets for global warming suggest a 2° C rise limit is desired, even better a 1.5° C limit but clearly that’s not expected only desired. The deadline to achieve this is the year 2100! The new Paris Accord that will supplement and replace the Kyoto Accord is some 31 pages in length. It leaves out a great deal of the specifics referring repeatedly to other invited reports from many ‘committees’ to fill in the details over time. So this Accord is rather generic. Much reading and interpretation of the details and language is sure to occupy legions of lawyers and lobbyists for years to come.
There are few if any specified mechanisms to measure, monitor, or account for key elements in the agreement as other agencies are expected to report on such details. Let’s repeat no accounting/books are required to be kept until the first accounting period begins as of 2023 and then on a 5 yr recurring basis. Some countries will be allowed to choose a later date starting in 2030 to act and or comply. Even so the accounting/book-keeping is entirely voluntary and it is very specifically stated that ‘allowances’ or as the text states “flexibility”, will be given for those nations who do in fact lie in their voluntary book-keeping and reports.
If 55% of the 196 nations do not sign or if that 55% doesn’t represent 55% of global emissions then no deal. One or two big nations might thus hold the deal ransom.
Even if put into force on schedule any substance of this new accord is subject to myriad complicated global governance bureaucratic exercises by other organizations and lo and behold the bureaucratic work is clearly intended to take 15 years. It is plain to see that this new Paris COP21 Accord is likely just a 15 year extension of the moribund toothless Kyoto Accord that was blatantly ignored by signatories and non-signatories alike but never-the-less spawned a climate casino fiasco that was gamed to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.
Wait we’ve seen this script before, please don’t tell us this is some sort of silly joke… as in please don’t lie but if you do never mind. According to the Paris COP21 agreement if you claim the parrot you were sold is dead and the seller says no it wasn’t no amount of bashing the body on the counter will be acknowledged as proving the parrot is not just resting.
This fine video tutorial is offered to those wanting to know how they might register comments or complaints.
How will whatever Paris goals to be done will be done
Unspecified emission reduction is the method and the goal is that in some time frame beyond 2050 that natural sinks of CO2 which are specified as oceans and forests should be capable of managing whatever unreduced human emissions are still in effect. No specifics yet on the numbers expected to be within that natural sink carrying capacity in the latter half of this century.
Of course perhaps they have been paying attention to my work and its proof that the oceans can easily manage such a CO2 problem as might emerge tomorrow provided yesterdays already emitted trillion tonne CO2 overdose doesn’t prove to be the lethal dose it may well be if left untreated. So just a reminder to the tens of thousands of bureaucrats, lawyers, politicians, and climate banksters who have drafted this new Paris Accord you don’t get to write off the old debt and start afresh from today.
There is no specified mechanism for enforcement and it is expressly stated that there will be no penalty for countries that miss their emissions targets. Absolutely no threat suggesting miscreants might be expected to join blue parrots amongst the choir invisible.
No overall goal in spending to achieve the lofty goals is set, the number of $100 billions as a floor for funds that might flow from rich to poor nations to help poor nations who are not expected to contribute to the global solution.
The only proof will be in the pudding
This Paris Accord, assuming its good intentions and that it is agreed to is very dependent on the vital actions and reports of many UN and international agencies and commissions. The Paris Accord acknowledges that it will be many years of work for the vital facts and figures and mechanisms to motivate, implement, monitor, report, and determine whether progress is actually being made. We have but a rough recipe of intentions to make and bake a pudding here. it will be at least a decade before the ingredients might have been mixed let alone put in the globally warm oven to slowly bake, or perhaps in this case to ‘unbake.’
One plum for the pudding might be a called for report in 2018 by the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) on a forecast of the expected consequences of ‘global warming’ of more than 1.5° C. That we can be assured will be a very sour plum indeed.
Want to do the math on the Paris Accord?
The deal in Paris says we all must reduce our emissions by 30% by the year 2050! The less developed world says the rich must do the lions share of this. So figure on at the very least ~1 day out of every 3 from now on must result in NO CO2 emissions. That means no transportation other than shanks mare or your bicycle, no cooking with gas, on the barbie, or with a wood stove, almost no electricity, and myriad other inconveniences. You are expected to give up more if you are one of the billion or so people living in a rich countries less if you are one of the other 6 billion people living in a poor countries.
A global 30% CO2 emission reduction next year, 2016, will be some 11 billion tonnes of CO2 NOT emitted. For some context, the world’s entire present day transportation system, cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships everywhere spew out a yearly total CO2 emission of just 7.6 billion tonnes of CO2! I don’t see the world abandoning all mechanized transportation just to cover 2/3’s of the CO2 payment required, so we must come up with practical, affordable alternatives!
The Real And Immediate Solution – Bring Back The Fish
Ah well at least this silly prolonged skit in Paris is over and unless we sit back and accept another 15 years of accomplishing nothing we ought to get down to the work of restoring the ocean pastures of this blue planet at the cost of a few million dollars every year. As we demonstrate our will and ability to become good shepherds and restore those blue ocean pastures they will easily take care of the lions share of our global CO2 crisis. Billions of tonnes of our menacing CO2 will every year be repurposed into new ocean health, life, and abundance and in the bargain those revived ocean pastures will give us a yearly dividend in the form of billions of additional fish to help end world hunger.
As the oceans come back to health as soon as the next 5 years at a cost of mere millions, little or noone of the hundreds of billions spoken of, pledged, promised, or committed to by 195 nations standing tall in Paris with one hand full of crossed fingers behind their backs will matter much.